Conflict in Iran Yields Uncertain Prices, Uncertain Future

Since the creation of the U.S. 250 years ago, peacetime has reigned for only 20 of those years. That makes roughly 90 percent of U.S. history clouded in war. This year, another war was added.

For any unknowing American (or any American without a gasoline-powered car), this past year President Donald Trump declared war on Iran. Trump claimed there was a basis for this war, that being a destruction of the means with which Iran could create nuclear arms.

This is not the first time that the U.S. has declared war on a country for the purpose of nuclear prevention. As in the proxy wars during the Cold War, America faced the U.S.S.R in part with the purpose of preventing the spread of nuclear arms.

Also, in the first Iraq war, the basis for attack was the believed possession of Nuclear armaments. This proved to be false but was still publicly supported due to the then false perception.

This war has proved slightly different publicly. Iran has yet to actually possess Nuclear Armaments and merely has the infrastructure to support it. This fact has, in part, swayed public opinion away from the war, and the now large divide in political parties has made Democrats inherently more cynical to Trump’s use of the military.

In the past weeks, this war has also had adverse effects on gas prices, causing Americans to feel a greater pinch on their wallets than previously seen.

The upside is the war is currently in an ongoing ceasefire, of which the general populace is happy , but with this ceasefire come quite a few questions. 

The first question, and the one a majority of Americans are asking, is what will happen to gas prices? The answer is that they will go up before they come down. 

This war led to a blockade of The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial crude oil passage in the Middle East. In fact, 20% of all the world’s crude oil, the primary component for gasoline, comes through the Strait.

In addition, an immediate resumption of oil transpiration through the Strait still would not quell the problem, as the oil shipments have been backed up for seven months. This, in short, causes a historically low supply and rampant demand for gasoline.

The second question is, what could end this war? A ceasefire is merely a temporary halt to a war in hopes that a resolution could be made, and though there is at times an indefinite peace that comes from them, they typically just lead to increased tensions.

The answer to what could end the war can actually be found in the fifteen point peace plan brought forth by President Trump, which includes, but is not limited to, a resumption of the Strait Hormuz, a halting of Iran’s uranium enrichment, and an end to the funding of proxy groups by Iran.

These ideas are fairly far-fetched as Iran, having requested a recognition of their independence and solidarity, would have to backtrack in order to meet president Trump’s demands.

In addition, Iran is a foreign entity over which America has no purview, meaning that the request for halting their nuclear development are baseless.

In this case, Gas prices are likely to continue to go up, and peace talks will remain tumultuous.